Heavy, Unexpected Winds Challenge Crop Outlook From Oaxaca Region
Two days ago heavy winds swept through Oaxaca in the southern regions of Mexico centered heavily in mango production zones. Many of the early mangoes expected to be harvested for January and February have literally been ripped off the trees for several producers in the area or severely damaged by the hefty winds. We don’t yet know the full details, but in the very least we know the situation is very troublesome to overall regional production outlooks previously forecasted. We are currently accessing Crespo Organic production in the area to determine which of our orchards have been effected and if so, to what extent and what it may mean for our early production yields.
It will undoubtedly take us a few more days to access any damages and the effects on production, timing and yields. Early estimates predict approximately 30% of early fruit thought to be unsalvageable for the export market. The American organic market demands very high quality, so determining if the heavy winds have compromised the quality of the fruit, will take time to determine. Accessing bloom damage is also extremely urgent for determining any changes to the mid season yields originally predicted.
Climate change is being blamed for the current unpredictable and dramatic weather patterns happening in all mango production zones up Mexico’s Pacific Rim and really all over much the world. We expect the topic of climate change to continue to be an important one among producers and exporters of mangoes from Mexico. Not only are we seeing these extraordinary and erratic climate events such as this wind storm or last seasons incredible wind, rain and hail storm that reeked havoc on 2016 season, but we are seeing very unusual behavior in the consistency of the weather overall. Currently as we move up the coast to other regions like Nayarit, Michoacán and Sinaloa we are not seeing the usual cold weather that follows the rain, which the mangoes need to move into healthful production. We are seeing some cold, some warm, some sunny and some rain. Mango producers are seemingly just as confused as the trees and it is impossible for us to plan or react in order to ensure bountiful yields. Regardless of your stance on climate change it is true that the weather patterns are becoming increasingly more inconsistent and difficult to predict.
We will continue to access the orchards and report back with the findings and the new outlook. What is important is that we plan. We know the February and March months will be difficult, especially with the early and incredibly light ending of the Peruvian season. In order to achieve as smooth of a transition as possible, we need to plan ahead. We will be working on finalizing our onset volumes over the next week and will be able to provide accurate information in real time so that we may plan ahead with our customers in order to achieve a smooth and successful transition into the 2017 Crespo Organic Mexican Mango Season
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